Conor vs. Khabib...
the Fight Smart official prediction.
If you've been reading for a while, you might know that I believe Khabib Nurmagomedov to be the best 155 pound fighter in the history of the world... and he faces off agains The Notorious Conor McGregor this weekend.
Conor, is awesome. And genealogically speaking, we're practically brothers.
It's impossible for me to root against either of them.
Instead, I shall just break down the odds based on a series of likely events to take place in this fight!
If you've never seen Khabib fight, you're in for a cringeworthy experience.
I find myself cringing on behalf of his opponents.
The way that he takes other fighters down and beats them into near lifelessness... it's brutal. It's by far the worst way to lose in the sport.
You can just see the looks on their faces, as their hearts collapse.
Conor, however, is a knockout technician of sorts.
He has proven his own ability to put anyone in his division to sleep.
They seem to crumble under his left hand.
And Khabib fights with his head straight up.
He pressures forwards relentlessly, but his damn head is always straight up.
It's a highly punchable head.
SO...
Stipulation #1. If McGregor knocks him down or stuns him in the first round, I give Conor a 75% chance of winning.
He's not the dude you want to fight with your head swimming... and if he's smart, he's been working takedown defense with the best wrestlers in the world.
Stipulation #2. If Khabib takes Conor down in the first round, I give Khabib an 80% chance of winning.
McGregor will be tired.
But he will have some pep back in the second round. He could come back.
If Khabib takes him down AGAIN in the second round, I give Khabib him a 95% chance of winning.
McGregor doesn't have the gas tank to deal with Nurmagomedov's ground game. It's relentless... and the Russian's cardio is spectacular.
He's never lost a round. Not one.
If Conor is taken down again in the third round... it's over.
You will see the true depth of Nurmagomedov's savagery, and you will cringe on behalf of McGregor.
I can't say that I will enjoy it.
But Khabib fights with his damn head straight up.
And Conor has that left hand...
Anything is possible, but I think Khabib takes this one.
If McGregor is going to take this one, he better HIT HARD and HIT EARLY.
Get the knockout while you're fresh old chap.
Lest you find yourself on your back...
Here's a highlight reel which shows many of Khabib's wins. It's not a dramatic presentation... but you'll get a good idea of the man's style.
Here's a shorter, much more glorious and highly dramatized highlight reel... which just might get you fired up to see the outcome of this one.
I am certainly fired up.
Whoever wins, will undoubtedly be the greatest that the division has seen.