McGregor vs Cerrone Predictions...
(and voting)
Well McGregor is back... and whether you love him or hate him, the dude is electrifying to watch.
He is arguably the most elite striker in the UFC... not with the craziest moves, or the wildest style, but has anyone ever been so precise and so elusive simultaneously?
(...maybe Anderson Silva.)
Nevertheless, Conor's strikes crumbled everyone in the featherweight division, and most people in the lightweight division.
But he ain't fighting a lightweight this time.
Donald Cerrone is a warrior. I hate the nickname 'Cowboy', but in the 1800's, he probably would have been murdering people on dusty streets... so... whatever.
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I will be immediately deleting any emails attempting to share your opinions with me... I am now a digital entity that exists only on that page.
(this is me... in that page:)
MY PREDICTIONS:
If you watch that highlight reel, you will see a marked difference in styles. McGregor is big into the slip and counter game. He likes pulling his head juuuuuuuust outside of people's range, and then coming back in with that brutal left hand.
But he's FOUR inches shorter than Cerrone... can he do the same thing?
Well, technically yes, because he has an inch reach advantage, despite being dramatically shorter.
But he might find the task considerably more difficult than previous bouts, and perhaps this highlights a key aspect of McGregor's historic success.
He's always been tall for his weight class. He's wiry, without the burden of bulk, and his reach is RIDICULOUS for his height.
Imagine how easy it is to counter when your arms are 4 or 5 inches longer than your opponents, and you're taller than them.
He has now relinquished most of that combined advantage.
Let's talk Cerrone for a second.
I've never completely forgiven Donald for the beating that Nate Diaz gave him. I think that Nate is one of the sloppiest strikers in the history of the sport. And he just crushed Cerrone. That was the first fight of his that I watched, and it stuck with me.
Since then, the dude has put handfuls of people to sleep with a really nasty right roundhouse to the head. He's thrown RIDICULOUSLY diabolical combinations like this one... and his Jiu Jitsu is nice.
He can honestly beat people from anywhere.
Yes, his style is simple. He's perhaps a tad rigid. But this dude is tough as nails, ad he is hard to finish. And that may be a problem for Conor.
I'm paraphrasing here, but a notable quote after the first time Conor lost to Nate Diaz was, "Smaller guys usually crumble under those shots..."
His last bouts at 170 pounds didn't go the way that his lightweight fights did. Perhaps more massive opponents can absorb his strikes more effectively. Maybe Nate Diaz is just a mutant.
And this ties into my final prediction...
I think that Conor will win. He will out-strike Cerrone, and has a good chance of knocking him out.
But he better do it early. His gas tank is not his strongest attribute, and at 170, it's going to be even worse. If this gets to the third round, you're going to see Cerrone start landing more shots.
By the 4th, McGregor might be forced to protect his body. That might open Cerrone up for that big head kick.
If Conor wants to win, he better do it early...
A couple of additional notes, McGregor's wrestling D is very tight. I don't see Cerrone taking him down. If he does, I imagine it will be back up on the feet rather quickly.
This game will be fought and won standing.
Before round four, I give it 80% chance of Conor victory.
During round four or after, it's a 50/50 toss up.
Again, take a look at this video, and share any predictions on that page.
I will be approving all comments throughout the day, so don't worry if yours doesn't pop up right away!
Have a fantastic weekend!